As usual, I've run three holiday games using the tactics and line-ups which were predicted by Forza in Part One of this article (link at the bottom of the page). This is how it turned out:


So what were the key factors here?

1. Napoli's awful passing is still more dangerous than Palermo's impotent ball retention
A recurring theme in the three games was that Palermo had the majority of possession and yet failed to do as much with it as Napoli. This may seem odd when you consider that Palermo won the last game 4-1 but all of the goals were from distance and Napoli created 4 clear cut chances which they failed to convert.

Time and again, Palermo would retain possession well but come unstuck 25 yards out when faced with the Partenopei's back three and midfielders tucking back in. When Napoli did manage to break forward, they were much more dangerous with quick, direct passing.

Palermo, on the other hand, resorted to shooting from distance, as the heat map to the right shows. Whilst this worked in the third game, with Miccoli's hat-trick goals all coming from outside the box, Napoli's chances were much more likely to bring success over the piece.

2. Lack of "out ball" for Napoli
Leading on from the last point, Napoli's passing completion was so poor mostly because of the direct route they were taking. This largely came about because there was no link between defence and midfield. With Maggio and Dossena (who was awful throughout) pinned back into a defensive 5, there was no continuity from defence to attack. Long balls aren't great percentage plays and resulted in the defeat in the third game - giving the ball back to an opponent and allowing them that many shots is inviting trouble.

3. Dossena is pants
It's a bit harsh but he was utterly dreadful in each of the games with ineffectual crosses, misplaced passes, losing key headers and tackles. If Napoli had a proper left midfielder available to match the industry and ability of Maggio on the right then they might have won the midfield battle more regularly. As it was, the former Liverpool man proved to be a true weaklink in the side.


Overall, Napoli were the more dangerous side. A bit of a silly thing to say when they shipped 4 in the third game but long range efforts like that are a lottery. 8 clear cut chances to 0 over the three games tells it's own story. But the results were fairly even with a win a-piece and a draw in between, therefore I'll be assigning this as:

FM Predicts: Palermo 2 - 2 Napoli

Will this match reality? Well, either find out by watching the game or keep an eye out for Part 3 - the review.